Waiting list for Rivian stretches to late 2023, Australia will have to wait till 2024

Rivian just started customer R1T production and has to fill 55,400 orders of the electric adventure truck and the electric adventure SUV. At their current rate of production and anticipated production ramp-up, it is going to take a while.

Recent Updates on Rivian production ramp from the 3rd S-1 amendment [filed 11/5] pushes the waiting list out to late-2023 while also pushing out any possible Australian launch out to 2024 at the earliest.

“We produced 104 R1T vehicles during the last week of October 2021, representing approximately 8% of our target R1 production rate. Our target is to produce approximately 1,310 R1 vehicles a week, which when annualized (assuming 49.6 working weeks per year), equates to the current installed R1 platform capacity of approximately 65,000 R1 vehicles annually.”

The impressive details of Rivian’s R1T electric ute and R1S electric SUV – which it unveiled back at the 2018 LA Auto Show – were hidden away in the company’s amended prospectus filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this week.

The filing is being released ahead of the company’s planned Nasdaq public offering, which may happen as soon as next week. Rivian plans to offer 135 million shares priced between $US57 and $US62. Underwriters will also have the opportunity to purchase an extra 20.25 million shares.

Rivian expects that at the high end of that range and if underwriters purchase all new shares, the offering will bring in an eye-watering $US9.6 billion and give the business a market value of up to $US54.6 billion.    

Its IPO expectations aside, there is some good news about Rivian’s production progress. The automaker produced 180 R1Ts and delivered 156 R1Ts as of October ending – nearly all of which were delivered to Rivian employees.  

Rivian is looking to immediately ramp up production of their vehicles and also begin customer deliveries in December, and by the end of the year, Rivian aims to have produced approximately 1,200 R1Ts and 25 R1Ss, and to have delivered approximately 1,000 R1Ts and 15 R1Ss.

Here is a portion of Rivian’s filing elaborating on its production and delivery forecasts.

“Based on our current production forecast, we expect to fill our preorder backlog of approximately 55,400 R1 vehicles by the end of 2023. Our manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois, is currently equipped to produce up to 150,000 vehicles annually, distributed between the R1 platform, which will be used to produce the R1T and R1S, and the RCV platform, which will be used to produce EDVs and other commercial vehicles. when the equipment is operated at full rate and on multiple shifts.”

 The current annual installed capacity for the R1 platform and RCV platform is approximately 65,000 and 85,000 vehicles, respectively.

In fact, the first Rivian R1T electric ute made for a customer only rolled off the factory floor at the EV maker’s production line in Normal, Illinois, back in the middle of September.

We expect to reach a vehicle production rate, which, when annualized, would result in us using 100% of the facility’s current installed capacity of up to 150,000 vehicles by late 2023.

What does all of this mean for the potential arrival of the Rivian ute and SUV in Australia? Nothing particularly good, if you were hoping for it to be soon.

As of the end of October, the Current production rate is 8% of the anticipated target.

At full capacity, Rivian expects to produce 1310 R1s/week, and 1710 EDVs/week….or put another way, 65,000 R1s/year, and 85,000 EDVs/year. If there were any doubt about Amazon’s importance to the company, the numbers paint a pretty clear picture.

Notably, Amazon is only committed to 100,000 EDVs…yet Rivian will be able to produce 85,000/year by 2023 and amazon expects delivery for these vans up until 2024. That will mean a few thousand vans over the ordered limit by 2024.

That would certainly be an interesting response to the Tesla/Hertz story! By implication and completely out of speculation here, it seems like a reasonable bet that Rivian announces another significant/material order of its electric vans at some point in the coming months by a company other than Amazon (perhaps a DHL/FedEx/UPS/USPS?) …

Production will increase based on (1) increased line speed, which could be attained by solving all the quality control issues).

Secondly by hiring and training more employees, and thirdly, purchase materials. That’s a pretty clear indication of why those who may have been promised delivery in late October/November are now being pushed to April.

Full run rate isn’t expected to be achieved until late 2023. This seems reasonable for a new vehicle.

Despite the fact that a Rivian R1T in classic “Rivian Blue” and a camouflaged R1S with distinct Rivian badging were seen at Sydney airport back in August, an Australian expansion has continually been pushed back, as North American demand increased.

Any Australian launch is targeted for after the company launches in Europe, which as of August was expected for 2022.

“As of now, we only have plans for the US and Canada, with European preorders to open up sometime next year,” said a company spokesperson writing to local EV enthusiast Jay Hall back in August. He added that “this is not to say that we won’t open up orders to Australia eventually!”

“For what it’s worth, with our future entry into Europe necessitating [right-hand drive (RHD)] setups, that will be one less variable to worry about for you all!” the Rivian spokesman added.

This news was followed in October with an SEC filing that flagged the Australian market’s importance to Rivian’s future success, but which hinted that the R1T and R1S would likely not be launched in Australia until at least 2023.

Considering, however, that North American preorders have the company production backlog stretching out to the end of 2023, and a promised European launch to take place before Australia gets its chance, it looks unlikely that Australia would get its first look at an officially launched Rivian until at least some time in 2024.

Hanson F.https://thevolter.com
Hanson is a lover of electric cars especially Rivian. He is a contributor for The Volter as well as other news hubs

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